Tuesday, January 27th Edition |
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By Cory Ohlendorf, Valet. EditorJust the thought of health insurance causes a kind of monetary panic, right? |
Today’s Big Story
Health Insurance Costs Even More Now
Monthly bills are rocketing higher than most people’s mortgages these days

As if we needed more things to worry about or higher costs on anything else … and yet, here we are. Millions of Americans are starting to see their monthly health-insurance bills rise.
According to the Wall Street Journal, many of those facing the most substantial dollar increases are middle-income Americans who buy health insurance through the marketplaces set up by the government’s Affordable Care Act. Expanded subsidies for those insured under the ACA expired on Dec. 31—the central battle in last year’s record-long government shutdown. There’s still been no resolution on the subsidies, and lawmakers haven’t passed any legislation to revive them.
The result? Employers’ health benefit costs are expected to rise 9%, the largest increase in several years, though they will try to soften the blow somewhat for workers, according to consultants. Premiums for the benchmark ACA plan soared 26%, on average, one of the biggest jumps since the Obamacare plans debuted more than a decade ago. (Enrollees’ actual premium payments are expected to spike 114%, on average, due to the expiration of the enhanced federal subsides, according to KFF, a health policy research group.)
And Medicare Part B premiums, which cover doctors’ visits, outpatient hospital services and other care, shot up nearly 10% this year, the largest increase in four years and second-largest hike, in dollar terms, in the program’s history. The standard monthly premium is now $202.90, up $17.90 from last year, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
CNN reports that the surge comes as insurers are in the hot seat in Washington, D.C. President Donald Trump says he will soon meet with industry leaders to pressure them to lower premiums, while House lawmakers grilled the CEOs of several major insurers in daylong hearings on Thursday.
Living without health insurance, of course, feels precarious. But many Americans say that their new insurance bills are sometimes double or even triple what they pay for their monthly rent or mortgage on their homes. And these higher healthcare costs come at a time when affordability is a serious concern. Overall inflation has cooled, but is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and prices for certain essentials like coffee and beef increased markedly last year. Consumers are still disgruntled about prices that are much higher than they were five years ago.
Meanwhile: |
Health insurers tumble after Trump administration proposes keeping Medicare Advantage rates flat next year. |
Trump Softens Tone on Protests
Top Border Patrol official expected to leave Minneapolis as White House sends Homan to the state
President Donald Trump on Monday showed his first signs of retreat since surging federal immigration agents in Minnesota late last year. Softening his tone on the protests in the wake of another killing of an American citizen by federal officers—and amid growing calls for investigations—he expressed sorrow over the bloodshed and replaced the leader of the crackdown on the ground. He even signaled a new willingness to cooperate with the state’s elected officials.
At the same time, the White House tried to pin the violence on Democratic-led jurisdictions that prohibit local cooperation with federal immigration authorities. The administration warned that the violence won’t end until Democratic governors and mayors assist federal law enforcement in arresting, detaining and deporting undocumented immigrants. Many are questioning just how much would change on the ground.
The first test could come later today. Border Patrol chief Gregory Bovino and some of his agents are now expected to leave the city. Sidelining Bovino could herald a move away from the heavy-handed approach that he had encouraged. Public opinion surveys show voters, especially independents, turning against Trump on his signature issue—adding to his falling ratings on managing the economy, especially inflation. A New York Times-Siena College poll conducted before the Alex Pretti shooting this month found that 61% of Americans and 71% of independents said ICE has “gone too far,” even as 50% of voters said they approved of Trump’s deportations.
The Government Could Shut Down (Again)
Democrats say they won’t vote for what was a bipartisan bill to fund most of the government, including DHS and ICE
Here we go again: Most of the federal government could shut down at the end of the week. After a federal agent killed Alex Pretti in Minnesota, Democrats say they won't vote for what was a bipartisan bill to fund most of the government, including Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement. However, NBC News reports that a shutdown likely wouldn’t halt aggressive ICE and Border Patrol operations in Minneapolis and other parts of the country.
Under enormous pressure from their base, Senate Democrats have vowed to block a sweeping government funding bill unless significant restrictions are imposed on the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement operations. A list of demands for changes at DHS requiring warrants for arrests and mandating that federal agents identify themselves. But Axios says that some moderate Democrats might not be willing to go that far, a repeat of the dynamic that fractured Democrats in last year’s shutdown battle.
And it’s been a quick pivot. Before the shooting in Minnesota, there was expected to be enough Democratic support in the Senate to avoid a government shutdown. Yet, under DHS’ new shutdown plan, a GOP leadership source said, ICE employees would be considered “excepted workers” and required to continue showing up to work, though they, like other workers, would not get paid. On top of that, even in a shutdown, ICE would continue to have ample funding since the agency received $75 billion of additional money for detention and enforcement from President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” last year, a GOP source told reporters.
FYI: |
It's been approximately 2 ½ months since the last shutdown ended in November, after a record-breaking 43 days. |
It’s Officially Tax Season
And your federal tax refund may be bigger than usual
The Internal Revenue Service opened tax season Monday as sweeping tax changes kick in, reshaping how people file their returns—and what they may owe or get back. But if you’re someone who doesn’t rush to file your taxes, you’re not alone. Nearly one in four Americans say they wait until the last minute to file, according to a 2025 survey by IPX1031, a financial services firm.
But there are practical reasons to consider filing early. The IRS projects about 164 million individual income tax returns this year. This is up from last year's IRS estimate of more than 140 million returns. And this year, timing could matter more than usual, as IRS staffing cuts have added operational strain, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate Service, an independent watchdog within the IRS.
Of course, what many people really want to know is when they can expect their refund. And this year, that refund may be noticeably larger—assuming nothing significant has changed about your financial or family life. The average refund paid out last year was $3,167 through December 26, reports CNN. And the Treasury is now projecting tax refunds will increase by an average of $1,000 this year per household. Why is that? Two main reasons: 1) Congress made a number of new and expanded tax breaks effective for tax year 2025; and 2) most people did not adjust the tax withholding on their paychecks last year to account for the changes in their tax breaks.
FYI: |
93% of taxpayers filed their federal returns electronically last year. |
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