The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged on Wednesday, holding between 3.75% and 4%. It follows a quarter-point hike last month (the Fed’s first increase in three years) and it means your mortgage quote, your card APR and your car loan all stay exactly where they are … for now.

The reason for the hike is the reason for the hesitation: inflation is moving the wrong way. Prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, a four-month high, driven partly by fuel costs tied to unrest in the Middle East. That's more than a full point above the Fed's 2% target. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the committee wants more data before it moves again, while describing economic activity as expanding at a strong pace.

Markets aren’t buying the wait-and-see. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a quarter-point hike in December at nearly 80%. The labor market makes that a harder call: employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, down from 162,000 in August. A hot inflation print and a cooling jobs number pointing in opposite directions is the worst possible homework assignment.

Bank of America told clients the Fed is boxed in—hike and it risks overtightening into a weakening labor market, hold and it risks its credibility as an inflation fighter, reports ABC News. Hovering over all of it: President Donald Trump has publicly demanded lower rates, which is not typically how the independent central bank likes to be addressed.

One quieter note from Warsh: the Fed will trim its calendar to seven rate decisions in 2027 and six in 2028. That means fewer meetings, fewer chances to flinch. Until then, December is the one to watch, and the case for a hike is loud but far from settled.

South Carolina is a tossup. That’s the headline from a New York Times/Siena University poll showing appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham (who holds the seat of her late brother, Lindsey Graham) tied with Democrat Annie Andrews, PBS NewsHour reported.

North Carolina looks worse for Republicans. Former Gov. Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by double digits there, running hard on affordability and against tariffs. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, and both parties are acting like it: President Donald Trump rallied in Lubbock against Texas Democrat James Talarico, who faces Ken Paxton, with Trump next headed to Ohio and Vice President JD Vance to North Carolina.

And Politico points out Midwest Dems are faving a do or die moment to win back Trump districts before 2028.

Alphabet burned through cash last quarter. For the first time in its 22 years as a public company, Google’s parent posted negative free cash flow—minus $9.07 billion, worse than the minus $5.9 billion the quarter before. Shares fell more than 10% in extended trading.

It seems the AI buildout everyone cheered is now showing up on the wrong side of the ledger. Revenue for the third quarter ended Sept. 30 came in at $127.6 billion against an estimated $128.2 billion, according to the New York Post. Core advertising landed at $82.01 billion, roughly $1.41 billion short. Net income available to common shareholders dropped 25% to $26.17 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.67 badly undershot the $3.02 target.

Whether this is a blip or the start of a reckoning depends on quarters nobody’s seen yet. The cash flow number, though, is the one that’ll follow Alphabet into the next earnings call.