The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday, up from 2.2% in the second and well past the 3.1% consensus forecast compiled by Dow Jones. That’s the kind of number that scrambles everyone’s assumptions at once—and it landed days before the midterms.

Here’s what is driving it: Cconsumer spending rose 3.8%, but the real engine was investment. Gross private domestic investment soared 19.4%, with business investment excluding housing up 12.7% and spending on information processing equipment up a staggering 37.4%—the AI build-out, showing up in the national accounts. PBS NewsHour framed the quarter as consumer strength plus data centers.

Of course, the sour notes are easy to find. Housing investment fell 3.3%, its sixth drop in seven quarters. And on the same morning, September PCE inflation came in at 0.5% for the month and 3.6% over the year, with the core reading at 3.1%. That’s nowhere near the Federal Reserve's 2% target, as CNBC points out.

That combination—hot growth, hotter prices—is why the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, a month after a quarter-point hike that was its first increase in three years. Traders aren’t betting on patience: CME FedWatch puts the odds of a December hike near 85%. More expensive money, right as the economy looks strong on paper.

Which is the gap nobody on a ballot wants to explain. Consumer sentiment is down 15% since February, with gasoline above $4, and The Guardian noted the disconnect between the data and the mood heading into Tuesday. Worth remembering, too, that this is an advance estimate—the first of three. The number you're arguing about this weekend may not be the number that survives the revisions.

Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Pentagon’s top military planner, has been fired by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Sylvia ran the Joint Staff’s J5 directorate (strategy, plans and policy), the shop that builds and coordinates military options with the Joint Chiefs chairman and the president. And there’s no immediate replacement named.

No reason was given. The Joint Staff thanked Sylvia for 32 years of service and left it there. The Guardian reports the removal followed an Air Force Office of Special Investigations leak inquiry referred to the Justice Department, and that a senior Pentagon official said Sylvia failed three polygraphs. A colleague told the Washington Post that Sylvia denied leaking classified material while acknowledging he’d had contact with reporters. Sylvia himself hasn’t commented.

But … President Donald Trump has said new strikes on Iran are an option after next week’s midterms, and a third aircraft carrier plus additional troops are moving toward the region. Losing the officer who coordinates exactly those plans, with no successor in the chair, is not a small administrative hiccup. By the AP’s count, nearly two dozen senior leaders have been pushed out under Hegseth.

Yesterday, we were talking about Google. Today, the talk is about Amazon posting negative free cash flow of $42.4 billion. A year ago, that figure was positive $14.8 billion. It’s the second straight negative quarter and you know why: The company is pouring money into AI data centers faster than the business can refill the tank.

Shares fell more than 6% after hours, CNBC reports. But Amazon held its 2026 capex guidance at roughly $220 billion, and CEO Andy Jassy said the company will “spend meaningfully more in 2027.” The segments split hard. AWS grew 39% to $45.98 billion, beating estimates and making the case that the spending is buying something real. Advertising rose about 11% to $19.64 billion, a bad miss, according to Variety.

But context is everything here. Microsoft just trimmed its capex forecast. The market has quietly flipped its read on AI spending from growth story to risk factor, and Amazon walked into that mood with the biggest number on the table and no plan to shrink it. Whether 2027 brings a payoff or another $220 billion hole is, for now, entirely unresolved.