Thursday, November 5th Edition

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Today’s Big Story

Midterm Fallout Begins

 

After winning majorities in both chambers of Congress, Democrats are figuring out how to approach the Republican president

 

We officially have a lame duck in the White House after Democrats took both chambers of Congress Tuesday night, and the recriminations started before the last votes were counted. CBS News points out that the map moved in places it hasn’t moved in decades: Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina and Maine all flipped seats. Mississippi and Alaska are still too close to call.

Republicans spent Wednesday pointing fingers at each other. Speaker Mike Johnson told staff he won’t seek another term as GOP leader. JD Vance blamed the Iran war, and President Donald Trump called that assessment “largely true,” pointing to gas prices. Trump also asked advisers whether Pete Hegseth should stay on, then publicly said he isn’t considering removing him—his standard two-step that tends to precede the opposite.

On the other side, the agenda is already drawn up. Rep. Robert Garcia, the incoming House Oversight chair, named four investigative targets: Trump family business dealings, corporate corruption, the Department of Homeland Security and ICE, and Epstein. That’s the shape of Trump’s final two years—subpoenas instead of signing ceremonies.

But Democrats also argue they cannot (and will not) only be the anti-Trump party when they take control of both chambers in January with majorities larger and more ideologically diverse than anticipated. They have repeatedly stated they must materially improve the lives of voters or risk quickly losing Congress again.

Of course, there’s still plenty we don’t know. The Guardian counts 68 House races undeclared and two Senate races uncalled, so both the seat range and that 54-seat Senate figure will shift. Who replaces Johnson is unknown. How long Hegseth lasts is unknown. What a Democratic Congress actually passes, as opposed to investigates, is the question nobody’s answered yet.

 
Dig Deeper:

CNBC examines how Democrats flipped dozens of GOP seats. Republicans weren’t able to flip a single one.
 

Oil Prices Plunge

 

Experts credit to the Vice President’s post on the Iran war

Vice President JD Vance posted that the war with Iran was why Republicans got wiped—and crude fell off a cliff. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 8.3% Wednesday to close at $88.12 a barrel. Brent slid 8.7% to settle at $94.62.

Traders heard a sitting vice president concede the war is a political loser and decided peace just got likelier. Oil futures are down more than 14% this week as senior U.S. and Iranian officials signaled openness to a diplomatic settlement of the eight-month conflict. Democrats, who took both the House and Senate, now control the purse. “Markets now expect Trump may be inclined to make a deal,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates, who added that Democrats may try to restrict war funding.

For your wallet, this is the whole ballgame. The war has pushed gasoline and diesel prices up, and the same voters who felt it at the pump showed up Tuesday. In ABC News polling, 34% called the war crucial to their vote—well behind government corruption at 55% and cost of living at 49%.

 
FYI:

Don’t assume cheap fuel is locked in. Experts called the sell-off possibly “overdone,” and Rapidan’s Bob McNally still expects escalation.

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LIV Golf Is Over

 

The tournament will wind down after backers withdraw support

LIV Golf is winding down. BC Partners Credit, the private capital firm that had committed up to $300 million to bankroll a reimagined “LIV 2.0,” pulled its funding after concluding the league couldn't sign enough players to be viable. An attorney for LIV is expected to tell a court hearing today that the LIV 2.0 plan is dead. What’s next? Basically liquidation.

The money had already been draining out. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund withdrew its backing in April, and LIV filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New Jersey in September. How much PIF burned through depends on who’s counting: BBC Sport puts it north of $5 billion, CBS Sports at roughly $7 billion, and Fox News at an estimated $5 billion to $8 billion between 2021 and 2026. The player math never seemed to work. BBC Sport reported about 30 players had signed up for LIV 2.0, including major winners.

The exits are closing fast, too. The DP World Tour said any player signing with LIV next season can't be a member in 2027 — which shuts the door on Ryder Cup eligibility for Europeans. Thursday's hearing is the formality. The reckoning over who gets paid, and how much, is the part still unwritten.

 
FYI:

Launched in 2021, LIV split the sport and bought its talent outright, with some contracts reaching nine figures.

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Today’s Member Extras

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Culture Debriefing

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From a waxed-cotton derby and a winter-ready moc toe to some blacked-out waffle trainers, these are the kicks our team can’t stop talking about.

 
 

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Morning Motto

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